Understanding the cycle clarifies the path.
Historians William Strauss and Neil Howe identified an approximately 80-100 year cycle in Anglo-American history—a saeculum divided into four "turnings," each lasting roughly 20-25 years.
These turnings follow a predictable pattern: High → Awakening → Unraveling → Crisis.
The Fourth Turning—the Crisis—is a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the old civic order is torn down and a new one rises in its place.
The pattern repeats because human nature doesn't change.
The Revolutionary Crisis
Colonial rebellion, war, and the founding of a new nation. Old order swept away, new institutions created.
The Civil War Crisis
Existential conflict over slavery and union. The nation was reforged through blood and fire.
The Depression & WWII
Economic collapse, global war, and the rise of American hegemony. Old world order destroyed, new one built.
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes."— ATTRIBUTED TO MARK TWAIN
The signs are unmistakable.
Technological Acceleration: AI, machine cognition, and robotics are advancing exponentially. Change is measured in months, not decades.
Institutional Decay: Legacy systems are structurally incapable of adapting. Structures are fracturing under the weight of change they were never designed to bear.
Cognitive Overload: Decision-makers are overwhelmed and paralyzed. More noise and volatility than at any point in recorded history.
History is seasonal. The Fourth Turning is the winter of the saeculum—harsh, clarifying, transformative.
"In winter, the tree shows its essential structure. What was hidden by leaves becomes visible."— NOETIC DHARMA GROUP
The question is not whether change will come. It is who will shape what follows.
New leaders emerge. New institutions are built. Old assumptions are swept away and replaced with structures aligned to new realities.
Those who thrive now will be those who:
The Fourth Turning meets exponential technology.
AI capabilities are doubling every 6-12 months. What took decades now takes months. What took months takes days.
Every industry, every function, every assumption is being reconsidered. The incumbents are not prepared.
For those who move decisively, the window of opportunity is unprecedented—but it is closing rapidly.
The convergence of the Fourth Turning and AI acceleration creates a unique moment. Those who understand both will define the next era.
Noetic Dharma Group exists to guide leaders through this moment of maximum uncertainty and maximum opportunity.
We apply Socratic wisdom—rigorous inquiry, pattern recognition, first-principles thinking—to the challenges of the Fourth Turning.
We deploy capital and capability where it can create lasting value, not momentary gain.
We build the new while others cling to the old.
"The secret of change is to focus all of your energy not on fighting the old, but on building the new."— SOCRATES
The Fourth Turning demands action. The AI revolution rewards the prepared. Hesitation is the only guaranteed failure.